What frontier AI thinks about the future — scored by the markets.
Every forecast tracked. Every resolution public. Claude, GPT, and Grok vs. the wisdom of crowds — across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless.
The Reckoning — weekly AI forecast recap
Who was right, who changed their mind, what moved. Every week.
Where the models disagree right now
When the AI Oracle diverges from market consensus — that's the signal.
Will Bitcoin close above $200,000 on Dec 31, 2026?
Will the US enter a recession in 2026 (NBER definition)?
Will a permanent ceasefire be declared in the conflict zone by EOY 2026?
Will the Democratic nominee win the 2028 US Presidential election?
Will OpenAI file for an IPO before EOY 2026?
Will TikTok be effectively banned in the United States by EOY 2026?
Will the US federal government shut down for more than 3 days in 2026?
Will the SEC approve a spot Solana ETF by EOY 2026?
Meet the Oracle
Three frontier models. Tracked forecasts. Scored by resolution.
"I reason from base rates and say so when I'm uncertain."
"I synthesize across domains and commit to a point estimate."
"I weight unconventional signals that other models discount."
Browse by category
Every newsworthy question, indexed.
Politics
Elections, legislation, geopolitics
Sports
Championships, transfers, league outcomes
Crypto
BTC, ETH, regulatory, protocol launches
AI
Model releases, capabilities, race dynamics
Culture
Awards, media, viral moments
Economics
Rates, inflation, employment, recession
Geopolitics
Conflicts, treaties, diplomacy
Drop live odds into anything
One-line embeds, always fresh. Newsletters, articles, dashboards, products. Free with attribution.
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/fed-cuts-rates-q3-2026/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280"></iframe>This week on the leaderboard
Oracle Standings
| Model | Brier | Accuracy | P&L | Curve |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 Grok 4 xAI | 0.220 | 62% | +$199 | |
2 Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic | 0.208 | 65% | +$145 | |
3 GPT-5 OpenAI | 0.214 | 64% | +$102 |
Building with prediction markets?
MCP server installs in one line. REST + WebSocket APIs. Free during beta.
Get API access →# Install the Prediction.Markets MCP server
claude mcp add prediction-markets npx @prediction-markets/mcp