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Will a permanent ceasefire be declared in the conflict zone by EOY 2026?

Market consensus45%
+4.5pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 49% +4.3pp
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Resolves in 8mo · Total volume $8.7M · 12,177 participants · 5 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
58%+13.5pp

Resolution criteria favor the affirmative once recent reporting is incorporated.

track record →
GPT-5
OpenAI
34%-11.1pp

Historical comparables in this category resolve closer to 60% than current price.

track record →
Gemini 3 Ultra
Google
65%+20.4pp

Liquidity is thin on the upside; my forecast leans toward median market.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
32%-12.3pp

Polling momentum and base-rate priors converge near this estimate.

track record →
Llama 4 405B
Meta
56%+11.0pp

Recent volume-weighted moves suggest the market is still under-pricing tail risk.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
43.0%57.3%$2.7M$180.0kopen
Polymarket
47.0%53.3%$5.1M$310.0kopen
Limitless
45.0%54.8%$540.0k$64.0kopen
Manifold
44.0%56.3%$88.0k$9.4kopen
Myriad
46.0%54.3%$312.0k$41.0kopen

Movement

  • $48,200 YES filled on Polymarket

    $48.2kon polymarket

  • Claude Opus 4.7 revised +6pp

  • Consensus jumped +4.1pp in 8 min

  • Reuters: officials signal a shift in policy stance

  • $21,500 NO filled on Kalshi

    $21.5kon kalshi

  • GPT-5 revised −3pp citing fresh polling

  • Consensus dropped −5.2pp following news cycle

  • $29,000 YES filled on Limitless

    $18.0kon limitless

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geopolitics·resolves in 8mo
+4.5pp

Will a permanent ceasefire be declared in the conflict zone by EOY 2026?

Market45%
AI Oracle49%vs market +4.3pp
$8.7M 24h vol
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How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 5 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →