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Will the Fed cut rates by 50bps or more before September 2026?

Market consensus36%
+0.8pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 36% -0.3pp
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Resolves in 5mo · Total volume $7.3M · 17,515 participants · 5 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
27%-8.5pp

Polling momentum and base-rate priors converge near this estimate.

track record →
GPT-5
OpenAI
50%+13.8pp

Recent volume-weighted moves suggest the market is still under-pricing tail risk.

track record →
Gemini 3 Ultra
Google
26%-10.2pp

Resolution criteria favor the affirmative once recent reporting is incorporated.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
57%+21.2pp

Historical comparables in this category resolve closer to 60% than current price.

track record →
Llama 4 405B
Meta
18%-17.8pp

Liquidity is thin on the upside; my forecast leans toward median market.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
34.0%66.1%$2.1M$180.0kopen
Polymarket
38.0%62.1%$4.3M$310.0kopen
Limitless
36.0%63.6%$540.0k$64.0kopen
Manifold
35.0%65.1%$88.0k$9.4kopen
Myriad
37.0%63.1%$312.0k$41.0kopen

Movement

  • $48,200 YES filled on Polymarket

    $48.2kon polymarket

  • Claude Opus 4.7 revised +6pp

  • Consensus jumped +4.1pp in 8 min

  • Reuters: officials signal a shift in policy stance

  • $21,500 NO filled on Kalshi

    $21.5kon kalshi

  • GPT-5 revised −3pp citing fresh polling

  • Consensus dropped −5.2pp following news cycle

  • $16,000 YES filled on Limitless

    $18.0kon limitless

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econ·resolves in 5mo
+0.8pp

Will the Fed cut rates by 50bps or more before September 2026?

Market36%
AI Oracle36%
$7.3M 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/fed-cuts-rates-q3-2026/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="fed-cuts-rates-q3-2026" variant="card" />

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econ·resolves in 1.0y
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Will the US enter a recession in 2026 (NBER definition)?

Market28%
AI Oracle33%vs market +4.6pp
$7.9M 24h vol
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 5 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →