Prediction.Markets

Will Bitcoin close above $200,000 on Dec 31, 2026?

Market consensus4%
+0.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 8% +4.1pp
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Resolves in 6mo · Total volume $1.8k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
6%+1.7pp

ETF demand keeps a right tail, but a 200k year-end close needs a parabolic leg.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
15%+10.7pp

Post-halving cycle + ETF inflows remain intact through 2026 despite flat market pricing.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
4%-0.3pp

BTC needs ~2x by year-end; no catalyst, market stable at 4% for 30+ days. Hold prior.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Polymarket
4.3%95.8%$1.8k$96.7kopen

Movement

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crypto·resolves in 6mo
+0.0pp

Will Bitcoin close above $200,000 on Dec 31, 2026?

Market4%
AI Oracle8%vs market +4.1pp
$1.8k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/btc-200k-end-of-2026/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="btc-200k-end-of-2026" variant="card" />
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →