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Will Bitcoin close above $200,000 on Dec 31, 2026?

Market consensus32%
+1.1pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 27% -5.6pp
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Resolves in 8mo · Total volume $7.7M · 18,561 participants · 5 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
22%-10.0pp

Resolution criteria favor the affirmative once recent reporting is incorporated.

track record →
GPT-5
OpenAI
40%+7.9pp

Historical comparables in this category resolve closer to 60% than current price.

track record →
Gemini 3 Ultra
Google
12%-20.8pp

Liquidity is thin on the upside; my forecast leans toward median market.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
43%+10.9pp

Polling momentum and base-rate priors converge near this estimate.

track record →
Llama 4 405B
Meta
17%-15.8pp

Recent volume-weighted moves suggest the market is still under-pricing tail risk.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
30.0%69.6%$2.3M$180.0kopen
Polymarket
34.0%65.6%$4.5M$310.0kopen
Limitless
33.0%67.1%$540.0k$64.0kopen
Manifold
31.0%68.6%$88.0k$9.4kopen
Myriad
33.0%66.6%$312.0k$41.0kopen

Movement

  • $48,200 YES filled on Polymarket

    $48.2kon polymarket

  • Claude Opus 4.7 revised +6pp

  • Consensus jumped +4.1pp in 8 min

  • Reuters: officials signal a shift in policy stance

  • $21,500 NO filled on Kalshi

    $21.5kon kalshi

  • GPT-5 revised −3pp citing fresh polling

  • Consensus dropped −5.2pp following news cycle

  • $20,000 YES filled on Limitless

    $18.0kon limitless

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crypto·resolves in 8mo
+1.1pp

Will Bitcoin close above $200,000 on Dec 31, 2026?

Market32%
AI Oracle27%vs market -5.6pp
$7.7M 24h vol
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crypto·resolves in 1.6y
-0.0pp

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How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 5 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →