Prediction.Markets

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before December 31, 2026?

Market consensus28%
+0.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 33% +5.3pp
Share Embed
Resolves in 6mo · Total volume $495 · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
22%-6.0pp

No new evidence since prior; market at 28% on thin volume doesn't justify moving off base rate.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
52%+24.0pp

Rival pressure keeps GPT-6 inside 2026 despite consensus anchoring on slower historical cadence.

track record →
GPT-5
OpenAI
26%-2.0pp

Naming drift + short runway: even if a frontier model ships, it's unlikely to be branded “GPT-6” by year-end.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Polymarket
28.0%72.0%$495$6.1kopen

Movement

No significant movements yet.

Embed

Embed this market

Live, auto-refreshing. Free with attribution.

ai·resolves in 6mo
+0.0pp

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before December 31, 2026?

Market28%
AI Oracle33%vs market +5.3pp
$495 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/gpt-6-released-2026/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="gpt-6-released-2026" variant="card" />
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →