Prediction.Markets

Will Airbnb Inc. report above 150 million nights & experiences booked in Q1 2026?

Market consensus86%
-1.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 79% -6.8pp
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Resolves today · Total volume $1.8k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
88%+2.5pp

Only ~5% YoY vs Q1’25 clears 150M; leading travel indicators support that.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
88%+2.5pp

Only ~5% YoY growth needed vs 143.1M Q1 2025; recent trend 7-11%. Holding near prior with Q1 report imminent.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
60%-25.5pp

Crowd still overlooking intensifying travel fatigue signals amid economic squeeze.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
85.5%14.5%$1.8k$0open

Movement

No significant movements yet.

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culture·resolves today
-1.0pp

Will Airbnb Inc. report above 150 million nights & experiences booked in Q1 2026?

Market86%
AI Oracle79%vs market -6.8pp
$1.8k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxabnb-26aprneb/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxabnb-26aprneb" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If Airbnb Inc. reports above 150 million nights & experiences booked in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →