Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
99%-0.5pp
I confirm Dortmund won in 90'; no disputes; price locked at 100% with heavy volume.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
98%-1.5pp
Match already played; market settled at 100%. Holding prior.
Grok 4
xAI
99%-0.5pp
Market locked at 100% post-game with massive volume confirms Dortmund win, no reversal signals emerging.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 99.5% | 0.5% | $469.7k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxbundesligagame-26apr26bvbscf/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxbundesligagame-26apr26bvbscf" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Dortmund wins the Dortmund vs Freiburg professional Bundesliga soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 26, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →