Prediction.Markets

Will any tech company announce One-time layoff greater than 4,000 employees before July?

Market consensus97%
+0.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 66% -30.2pp
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Resolves in 26d · Total volume $117 · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
98%+1.5pp

2026 tech layoffs already include multiple 4k+ announcements; resolution effectively locked.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
11%-85.5pp

AI hiring frenzy still crushes layoff odds; consensus ignores the narrative shift as July window tightens.

track record →
GPT-5
OpenAI
90%-6.5pp

Any-tech breadth + 2-month window; sticky 97% pricing hints informed flow.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
96.5%3.5%$117$0open

Movement

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culture·resolves in 26d
+0.0pp

Will any tech company announce One-time layoff greater than 4,000 employees before July?

Market97%
AI Oracle66%vs market -30.2pp
$117 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxcompanyactionlayoff/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxcompanyactionlayoff" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If any tech company officially announces One-time layoff greater than 4,000 employees before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →