Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Aug 1, 2026?

Market consensus3%
+0.0pp 24h change
Resolves in 2mo · Total volume $5.7k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay

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Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
1.5%98.5%$5.7k$0open

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Resolution criteria

If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 0 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →