Prediction.Markets

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?

Market consensus61%
+1.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 58% -2.8pp
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Resolves in 13d · Total volume $0 · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
Grok 4
xAI
45%-15.5pp

Crowd over-anchored on recent inflation spikes, missing disinflation memetic momentum.

track record →
GPT-5
OpenAI
65%+4.5pp

H1’26 inflation looks sticky; futures price mid‑3s/low‑4s; dots skew high vs market.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
63%+2.5pp

March SEP median likely 3.625-3.875%; only aggressive cut signaling would push June median below 3.5%.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
60.5%39.5%$0$0open

Movement

No significant movements yet.

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culture·resolves in 13d
+1.0pp

What will the median be in the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 dot plot?

Market61%
AI Oracle58%
$0 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxdotplot-26jun/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxdotplot-26jun" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If the median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.5% at the Fed's Jun 17, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →