Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
23%-5.5pp
Exact-print at modal value resolves 20-25% historically; market at 28% still slightly rich relative to base rate.
Grok 4
xAI
15%-13.5pp
Crowd over-anchors on median CPI forecasts, but volatility makes exact 2.7% hit unlikely.
GPT-5
OpenAI
30%+1.5pp
Rounding band (2.65–2.74) is wide; base -0.1pp and ~0.18–0.20% m/m center YoY near 2.7.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 28.5% | 71.5% | $1.3k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxeconstatcorecpiyoy-26apr" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.7% in Apr 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →