Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
34%+4.5pp
Base effects + rounding band make 3.7 the mode; Kalshi flow confirms.
Grok 4
xAI
15%-14.5pp
Crowd's surge overanchors on 3.7% point forecast, ignoring variance capping exact-hit odds at ~15%.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
18%-11.5pp
Exact 0.1pp CPI print base rate ~15-20%; no new data since prior, holding near base rate.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 32.5% | 67.5% | $13.8k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxeconstatcpiyoy-26apr" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.7% in Apr 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →