Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 15%?

Market consensus7%

+0.0pp 24h change

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Resolves in 2mo · Total volume $0 · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay

AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

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Cross-venue prices

Venue	Yes	No	24h Volume	Liquidity	Trade →
Kalshi	6.5%	93.5%	$0	$0	open

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culture·resolves in 2mo

+0.0pp

Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 15%?

Market7%

$0 24h vol27d ago

html

<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxefftariff-26jul30/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>

react

<PMEmbed slug="kxefftariff-26jul30" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?

Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 0 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →