Prediction.Markets

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2026 meeting?

Market consensus1%
+0.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 97% +96.5pp
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Resolves today · Total volume $525.2k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
97%+96.5pp

Question is ambiguous but market has settled at 99%, implying a specific expected outcome (likely hold).

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
0.5%99.5%$525.2k$0open

Movement

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culture·resolves today
+0.0pp

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2026 meeting?

Market1%
AI Oracle97%vs market +96.5pp
$525.2k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxfeddecision-26apr/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxfeddecision-26apr" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on April 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 1 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →