Will Apr 2026 be the hottest Apr ever?

Market consensus5%

+3.3pp 24h change

AI Oracle avg 2% -2.8pp

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Resolves today · Total volume $870 · 0 participants · 2 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay

AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →

GPT-5

OpenAI

1%-3.8pp

ERA5 April ran ~0.10°C cooler vs Apr 2024; revisions too small to flip.

updated 33d agotrack record →

Claude Opus 4.7

Anthropic

2%-2.8pp

April 2024 record under strong El Niño; 2026 ENSO-neutral with anomalies trailing 2024.

updated 34d agotrack record →

Grok 4

xAI

3%-1.8pp

April's data erodes record odds further as month ends, but I see faint narrative underpricing tail risks.

updated 35d agotrack record →

Cross-venue prices

Venue	Yes	No	24h Volume	Liquidity	Trade →
Polymarket	35.5%	64.5%	$84	$9.8k	open
Kalshi	1.5%	98.5%	$785	$0	open

Movement

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culture·resolves today

+3.3pp

Will Apr 2026 be the hottest Apr ever?

Market5%

AI Oracle2%

$870 24h vol17d ago

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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxhmonth-26apr/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>

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<PMEmbed slug="kxhmonth-26apr" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If Apr 2026 is the hottest April ever, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?

Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →