Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
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Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 99.9% | 0.1% | $67.5k | $0 | open |
Movement
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxinxmaxy-01jan2027/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxinxmaxy-01jan2027" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending before Jan 1, 2027 is above 7599.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 0 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →