Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
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Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 6.0% | 94.0% | $289 | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxinxy-26dec31h1600" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is between 7400-7599.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 0 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →