Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
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Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 75.5% | 24.5% | $14 | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxismpmi-26may/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxismpmi-26may" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for May 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 51 in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 0 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →