Prediction.Markets

Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?

Market consensus2%
-13.5pp 24h change
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Resolves in 7mo · Total volume $41.3k · 0 participants · 2 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
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Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Polymarket
1.7%98.4%$40.1k$102.7kopen
Kalshi
16.0%84.0%$1.2k$0open

Movement

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culture·resolves in 7mo
-13.5pp

Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?

Market2%
$41.3k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxlargecut-26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxlargecut-26" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 0 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →