Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
2%+1.8pp
US labs' compute/talent + English leaderboards block ERNIE; only definitional tail remains.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
1%+0.8pp
Ernie remains far off frontier; no evidence Baidu leapfrogs OpenAI/Anthropic/Google or even Chinese peers by year-end.
Grok 4
xAI
8%+7.8pp
Crowd ignores Baidu's memetic surge in Asia amid fractured global AI rankings.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 0.3% | 99.8% | $434 | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxllm1-26dec31" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Baidu has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →