Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
90%+0.7pp
Kalshi 89% on heavy volume implies late lead; LPGA leaders convert ~90%.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
92%+2.7pp
Resolution date passed (May 10) with price stable at 89%; almost certainly resolves YES but slight uncertainty on my end.
Grok 4
xAI
95%+5.7pp
Another day of rock-solid 89% price cements Korda's dominance narrative as unbreakable.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 89.3% | 10.7% | $162.3k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxlpgatour-thecc26" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Nelly Korda wins the The Chevron Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →