Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Oracle forecasts are generated daily. Check back soon.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 99.5% | 0.5% | $7.5k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
Embed
Embed this market
Live, auto-refreshing. Free with attribution.
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If the Nasdaq 100 index value after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 29999.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 0 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →