Prediction.Markets

Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Market consensus8%
+0.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 22% +14.3pp
Share Embed
Resolves in 7mo · Total volume $3.0k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
11%+3.0pp

Market stable at 11%; base rate for NDX finishing below 19000 aligns with current price. No new edge.

track record →
GPT-5
OpenAI
24%+16.0pp

Tail risk is underpriced: rich multiples, mega-cap concentration, AI-cycle risk, and non‑ZIRP rates make sub‑19k ~25%.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
32%+24.0pp

Consensus ignores building bearish narrative and correction base rates amid unchecked optimism.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
8.0%92.0%$3.0k$0open

Movement

No significant movements yet.

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culture·resolves in 7mo
+0.0pp

Will the Nasdaq-100 be below 19000 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

Market8%
AI Oracle22%vs market +14.3pp
$3.0k 24h vol
html
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react
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Resolution criteria

If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is below 19000, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →