Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%-11.5pp
ATL won Game 2; 13 days no protest—NY resolving Yes is near-zero tail.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
5%-7.5pp
Holding near market — flat price on deep liquidity suggests game resolved or near-resolved against NY.
Grok 4
xAI
35%+22.5pp
Market overanchored on New York's apparent loss, ignoring strong appeal narrative and insider signals for potential overturn.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 12.5% | 87.5% | $10.6M | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxnbagame-26apr20atlnyk/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxnbagame-26apr20atlnyk" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If New York wins the Game 2: Atlanta at New York professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →