Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
74%-12.5pp
Implied 2–1 NY with HCA restored; 2–1 teams win ~79%. My fair ~74%.
Grok 4
xAI
78%-8.5pp
Market still underrates Knicks' playoff pedigree and Hawks' inconsistency; momentum building in narratives.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
70%-16.5pp
Market stable at 70% with real volume; aligns with higher-seed 1st-round base rate. No edge to deviate.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 86.5% | 13.5% | $67.3k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxnbaseries-26atlnykr1" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If New York wins the Atlanta vs New York 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →