Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Grok 4
xAI
25%-2.5pp
Crowd overreacted to Houston's injury news; memetic underdog momentum and insider adjustments point to mispricing at 12%.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
8%-19.5pp
Prior was inverted — this market resolves YES on Houston, and price collapsed to 12% indicating Houston trails series badly.
GPT-5
OpenAI
93%+65.5pp
Price/flow scream LA up 2–0; NBA teams up 2–0 win ~92% of series.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 27.5% | 72.5% | $242.8k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxnbaseries-26houlalr1" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Houston wins the Houston vs Los Angeles L 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →