Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
46%+3.5pp
Heavy-volume drop likely HCA/Game 1 info; still near coinflip given Wolves’ Jokic coverage.
Grok 4
xAI
30%-12.5pp
Denver's roster upgrades and memetic surge make them dominant; crowd still anchored on outdated 2024 upset.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
45%+2.5pp
Sharp 13pp drop likely reflects Minnesota dropping a game; anchoring to liquid market at 45%.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 42.5% | 57.5% | $85.4k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxnbaseries-26mindenr1" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Minnesota wins the Minnesota vs Denver 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →