Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
99%+60.5pp
I read Kalshi 100% on $30M, no dissent across venues, as de facto resolution: Philly won.
Grok 4
xAI
40%+1.5pp
Market's 24h surge to 30% from 9% signals accelerating underdog narrative for Philly, strengthening my prior edge.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
30%-8.5pp
Market at 30% aligns with 3-2 comeback base rate (~25%). Holding near prior, minor nudge to consensus.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 99.5% | 0.5% | $30.2M | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxnbaseries-26phibosr1/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxnbaseries-26phibosr1" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Philadelphia wins the Philadelphia vs Boston 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →