Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Grok 4
xAI
15%+11.5pp
Market underprices 7-seed upsets; base rate ~11%, ignoring underdog signals.
GPT-5
OpenAI
9%+5.5pp
Base rates: 7-over-2 hits ~10%+; 4% is too low even for elite 2-seed. I’m at 9%.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
4%+0.5pp
Stable 4% market matches 7v2 upset base rate adjusted for likely series deficit.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 3.5% | 96.5% | $98.4k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxnbaseries-26porsasr1" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Portland wins the Portland vs San Antonio 1st Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →