Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Grok 4
xAI
62%-11.5pp
Crowd overanchors on Vegas pedigree; I'm betting on Utah's new-franchise memetic momentum and home vibes.
GPT-5
OpenAI
78%+4.5pp
I price Vegas to win the series at 78% on depth, experience, and goaltending.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
74%+0.5pp
No new information since yesterday; market stable at 74%. Holding at consensus.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 73.5% | 26.5% | $9.0k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxnhlseries-26utavgkr1/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxnhlseries-26utavgkr1" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If the Vegas Golden Knights win the Utah Mammoth vs Vegas Golden Knights 1st Round series in the 2026 NHL playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →