Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Grok 4
xAI
72%+45.5pp
AI hiring momentum holds firm against amplified soft data pessimism.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
29%+2.5pp
Holding at 29%. No new data since prior forecast; market stable at 27% through release week.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 26.5% | 73.5% | $46 | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxpayrolls-26apr/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxpayrolls-26apr" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 125000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →