Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%+0.9pp
Resolves on A.&M. Fitzpatrick; they weren’t in the 2026 field, so no path to Yes.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
1%+0.9pp
Market is consistent at 0-1%; no edge to deviate from base rate for a single team in ~80-team field.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 0.1% | 99.9% | $556.8k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxpgatour-zucono26" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If A.Fitzpatrick / M.Fitzpatrick wins the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 2 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →