Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
7%+0.5pp
No new evidence; Q1 seasonally soft and 210M requires notable beat vs guided ~200M baseline.
Grok 4
xAI
25%+18.5pp
Zyn's memetic momentum in social circles will drive Q1 volumes over 210M, bucking consensus anchors on regs.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 6.5% | 93.5% | $4.9k | $0 | open |
Movement
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<PMEmbed slug="kxpm-26aprzynship" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Philip Morris International Inc reports above 210 million zyn us shipment volume in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →