Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
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Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 48.2% | 51.8% | $5.4k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxratecut-26dec31/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxratecut-26dec31" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between February 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 0 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →