Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
21%+1.5pp
Fed easing and fiscal support make two straight negative 2026 quarters unlikely.
Grok 4
xAI
15%-4.5pp
Crowd anchoring on full-year recession odds, ignoring that 2025 passed clean and Q1 2026 shows no red flags yet.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
15%-4.5pp
Base rate ~15-20% for recession onset in a given year. No 2025 contraction; 2026 needs Q1+Q2 both negative.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 14.5% | 85.5% | $26.3k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxrecssnber-26" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →