Prediction.Markets

Will Ariana Grande release a new song before May 16, 2026?

Market consensus65%
+4.8pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 55% -10.3pp
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Resolves today · Total volume $0 · 0 participants · 2 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
55%-10.3pp

Grande is in Wicked promo mode, not album cycle; no announced single imminent, but features/surprise drops possible in 3 weeks.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Polymarket
69.7%30.3%$0$30open
Kalshi
61.0%39.0%$0$0open

Movement

No significant movements yet.

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culture·resolves today
+4.8pp

Will Ariana Grande release a new song before May 16, 2026?

Market65%
AI Oracle55%vs market -10.3pp
$0 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxsongreleasedateag-26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxsongreleasedateag-26" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If Ariana Grande releases a new song Before May 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 1 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →