Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
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Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 24.0% | 76.0% | $61 | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxsp500removeq-26jul01" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Norwegian Cruise Line is announced to be or is officially removed from S&P 500 during April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 0 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →