Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxspacexstarship-12/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxspacexstarship-12" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 12 before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 0 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →