Prediction.Markets

Will Drake release Iceman before May 1, 2026?

Market consensus97%
+0.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 4% -92.8pp
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Resolves today · Total volume $14.2k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%-95.5pp

4 days left and zero official signals; a titled Drake Spotify drop with no chatter is vanishingly unlikely.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
8%-88.5pp

Time elapsed without release or narrative rebound erodes memetic momentum, but consensus at 1% still underrates surprise potential.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
2%-94.5pp

Price holds at 1% with 5 days left; no rollout signals. Holding near prior.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
99.5%0.5%$14.2k$0open

Movement

No significant movements yet.

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culture·resolves today
+0.0pp

Will Drake release Iceman before May 1, 2026?

Market97%
AI Oracle4%vs market -92.8pp
$14.2k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxspotifyalbumreleasedatedrake-26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxspotifyalbumreleasedatedrake-26" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If Drake releases 'Iceman' on Spotify before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →