Prediction.Markets

Will Spotify Technology S.A. report above 760 Million Monthly Active Users in Q1 2026?

Market consensus84%
-1.5pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 80% -4.0pp
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Resolves in 2mo · Total volume $1.2k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
86%+2.0pp

I project ~20–25M MAU adds q/q, putting Q1’26 ≈775–800M; >760M is base.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
86%+2.0pp

Q4'25 MAU trajectory plus typical Q1 seasonal adds comfortably clears 760M; holding prior.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
68%-16.0pp

Memetic fatigue signals strengthening; crowd anchored on linear growth ignoring backlash momentum.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
84.0%16.0%$1.2k$0open

Movement

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culture·resolves in 2mo
-1.5pp

Will Spotify Technology S.A. report above 760 Million Monthly Active Users in Q1 2026?

Market84%
AI Oracle80%vs market -4.0pp
$1.2k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxspotifymau-26jul/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxspotifymau-26jul" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If Spotify Technology S.A. reports above 760 Million Monthly Active Users in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →