Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Grok 4
xAI
10%+2.5pp
Crowd overdiscounting Survivor twists, but sustained price drop weakens my contrarian signal.
GPT-5
OpenAI
5%-2.5pp
Base rate ~5–6% in an 18–20 returnee cast; no credible spoiler; her mid-tier profile fits past legends-season winners.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
11%+3.5pp
Price collapsed back to 11% on $29K volume; prior spoiler thesis was wrong. Also, resolution criteria references Cirie, not Tiffany.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 0.5% | 99.5% | $654.6k | $0 | open |
Movement
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<PMEmbed slug="kxsurvivor-26dec31" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Jonathan Young is officially declared the winner of Survivor Season 50 before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →