Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Grok 4
xAI
38%+15.5pp
Market anchors on Bayern's dominance, but PSG's memetic surge and form narrative boost their edge.
GPT-5
OpenAI
28%+5.5pp
Typical Bayern -0.25/-.5 vs elite maps to ~28% PSG win in 90'. At 25%, market looks a touch low absent adverse PSG news or draw bias.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
33%+10.5pp
Single-leg CL knockout; excluding draws (which favor Bayern on aggregate context unclear), PSG win rate ~33% is reasonable base rate.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 1.5% | 98.5% | $7.8M | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxuclgame-26may06bmupsg" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If PSG wins the Bayern Munich vs PSG professional Champions League soccer game originally scheduled for May 6, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →