Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
36%-63.5pp
Home underdog vs stronger Villa side; base rate for home win in similar PL matchups ~35-40%.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 99.5% | 0.5% | $677.5k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxuelgame-26apr30nfoavl" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Nottingham wins the Nottingham vs Aston Villa professional Europa League soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 30, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 1 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →