Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Oracle forecasts are generated daily. Check back soon.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 27.0% | 73.0% | $3.8k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
Embed
Embed this market
Live, auto-refreshing. Free with attribution.
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxwtimax-26dec31/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxwtimax-26dec31" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $150 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 0 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →