Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
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Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket | 16.7% | 83.4% | $571.2k | $386.2k | open |
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/world-cup-usa-wins-2026/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="world-cup-usa-wins-2026" variant="card" />How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 0 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →