Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
60%+39.5pp
Resolution text says YES = GOP wins House. Market at 23% reflects that. Midterm base rate favors Dems flipping, so GOP holds ~40%.
Grok 4
xAI
34%+13.5pp
Midterm penalty for president's party remains the dominant base rate; 23% ignores history.
GPT-5
OpenAI
30%+9.5pp
Midterm penalty + modest court/map gains give Ds ~30%; 24% is too low.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 22.5% | 77.5% | $12.2k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/controlh-2026/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="controlh-2026" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If the Republican Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →