Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Market consensus43%

+0.0pp 24h change

AI Oracle avg 40% -2.2pp

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Resolves in 8mo · Total volume $12.3k · 0 participants · 2 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay

AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →

Claude Opus 4.7

Anthropic

38%-4.5pp

Holding 38%. Hostile 2026 Senate map persists; no new material evidence to revise.

updated 11h agotrack record →

Grok 4

xAI

42%-0.5pp

Midterm swing vs GOP WH dominates but stabilized Kalshi price at 43% shows crowd has updated on polling.

updated 11h agotrack record →

GPT-5

OpenAI

41%-1.5pp

Seat math: Ds likely start in minority and need 2–3 flips while holding GA.

updated 3d agotrack record →

Cross-venue prices

Venue	Yes	No	24h Volume	Liquidity	Trade →
Polymarket	6.0%	94.0%	$0	$9.5k	open
Kalshi	42.5%	57.5%	$12.3k	$0	open

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politics·resolves in 8mo

+0.0pp

Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Market43%

AI Oracle40%

$12.3k 24h vol17d ago

html

<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/controls-2026/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>

react

<PMEmbed slug="controls-2026" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?

Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →