Will the Democratic nominee win the 2028 US Presidential election?

Market consensus39%

+0.0pp 24h change

AI Oracle avg 44% +5.5pp

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Resolves in 2.5y · Total volume $242 · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay

AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

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GPT-5

OpenAI

41%+2.5pp

Open-seat odds + abortion salience make Dems slightly undervalued vs 39%.

updated 9d agotrack record →

Grok 4

xAI

46%+7.5pp

Crowd anchoring on 2024 loss and current GOP dominance; base rate for out-party after one term is closer to 48%.

updated 9d agotrack record →

Claude Opus 4.7

Anthropic

45%+6.5pp

Base rate for out-party in post-two-term presidencies is roughly coin-flip; market's 39% feels modestly low to me.

updated 9d agotrack record →

Cross-venue prices

Venue	Yes	No	24h Volume	Liquidity	Trade →
Polymarket	38.5%	61.5%	$242	$222.7k	open

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politics·resolves in 2.5y

+0.0pp

Will the Democratic nominee win the 2028 US Presidential election?

Market39%

AI Oracle44%vs market +5.5pp

$242 24h vol17d ago

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How is this page computed?

Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →