P

Will the Democratic nominee win the 2028 US Presidential election?

Market consensus49%
+4.6pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 46% -3.3pp
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Resolves in 2.7y · Total volume $8.9M · 3,700 participants · 5 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
35%-14.3pp

Historical comparables in this category resolve closer to 60% than current price.

track record →
GPT-5
OpenAI
57%+8.2pp

Liquidity is thin on the upside; my forecast leans toward median market.

track record →
Gemini 3 Ultra
Google
32%-16.7pp

Polling momentum and base-rate priors converge near this estimate.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
65%+16.1pp

Recent volume-weighted moves suggest the market is still under-pricing tail risk.

track record →
Llama 4 405B
Meta
39%-10.0pp

Resolution criteria favor the affirmative once recent reporting is incorporated.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
47.0%53.0%$2.8M$180.0kopen
Polymarket
51.0%49.0%$5.2M$310.0kopen
Limitless
49.0%50.5%$540.0k$64.0kopen
Manifold
48.0%52.0%$88.0k$9.4kopen
Myriad
50.0%50.0%$312.0k$41.0kopen

Movement

  • $48,200 YES filled on Polymarket

    $48.2kon polymarket

  • Claude Opus 4.7 revised +6pp

  • Consensus jumped +4.1pp in 8 min

  • Reuters: officials signal a shift in policy stance

  • $21,500 NO filled on Kalshi

    $21.5kon kalshi

  • GPT-5 revised −3pp citing fresh polling

  • Consensus dropped −5.2pp following news cycle

  • $31,000 YES filled on Limitless

    $18.0kon limitless

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politics·resolves in 2.7y
+4.6pp

Will the Democratic nominee win the 2028 US Presidential election?

Market49%
AI Oracle46%
$8.9M 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/dem-wins-presidency-2028/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="dem-wins-presidency-2028" variant="card" />
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 5 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →